Is Iran About to Fall?

When Iran protests began 2.5 weeks ago, it was because of extreme inflation and the rapid decline of the Iranian rial. Now that has changed. With millions of Iranian citizens protesting in over 180 locations throughout the country – and with thousands of Iranian protest deaths – this event has transformed into an historic opportunity to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Now many people are wondering will the Iranian regime fall?

The Potential Fall of Iran

The United States has indicated that it wants to help bring about the fall of Iran. “Help is on the way,” President Trump stated soon after the Iran protests began. Israel today already has its share of strife. However, it is interested in bringing down Iran as well and involved in discussions about how to do so. The United States and Israel are also making preparations for retaliatory attacks.

Iran stated that if the US attacks, they will counter-attack US ships and military bases in the region. They have also, of course, threatened to counter-attack Israel. However, any strike by the United States or any strike by Israel would surely focus on eliminating or greatly reducing Iran’s ability to strike back. Nevertheless, the United States as well as  Israel must handle any intervention extremely carefully. Iran is a unique and unpredictable country situated in a highly volatile region.

Iran was a fairly normal country before the Shah of Iran was deposed in 1979. It had close relations with much of the Middle East and Western world. People had freedom. Women could dress as they pleased. When the Ayatollah Khomeini seized control of the government, Iran underwent an ugly transformation into a dark and oppressive country cut off from much of the world. The United States soon terminated diplomatic relations with the country.

Iranians have long been pushing back against their repressive Islamic regime. Bringing down the current Iranian empire could result in a return to relative normalcy for the country and increased peace and stability throughout the Middle East and the world.

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah of Iran, lives in exile near Washington, D.C. He and President Trump have both stated they stand with the Iranian protestors. Pahlavi is counting on Trump to help the protestors and all citizens of Iran by bringing about the end of the current regime. “We stand on the threshold of reclaiming our beloved Iran from the Islamic Republic,” Pahlavi says. “The freedom of Iran is near.”

Pahlavi has positioned himself as an advocate for a secular and democratic Iran. He states that  he does not wish to restore the monarchy of which he was a member. Instead, he wants a political system chosen by the Iranian people through free and fair elections.

However, some people like National Council of Resistance of Iran member Ali Safavi says Pahlavi and the former Iranian royal family don’t have the experience needed to govern Iran.

Iran Attack Imminent?

Perhaps, if the United States strikes Iran and if the Iranian government subsequently falls, we will see the US take control of Iran like they took control of Venezuela after removing that country’s president earlier this month. At a time when we are seeing major transformations in the world and with the involvement of President Trump – who clearly has not bluffed about previous attacks – this might actually happen.

Will the Iranian regime fall? If/when it does, this massive event will deeply impact:

• the Iranian people
• the stability of Iran
• regional and international stability
• international relations
• global oil supply and prices
• Israel

To help bring about the end of the Islamic regime, the United States may undertake a rapid-fire surgical strike such as we saw in Venezuela earlier this month. As with that strike, in just a few hours the US may be able to remove the leaders of the Iranian regime, take out missile and missile defense sites as well as destroy any nuclear potential which may still remain after the July 2025 strikes on nuclear facilities. Alternatively, it may require a strike of a longer duration to accomplish all of this. Whatever type of action we see, it will surely further weaken the Iranian regime and potentially bring it to its knees.

Not much news comes out of Iran lately, as western journalists on the ground are virtually non-existent. Also, the government began instituting internet shutdowns as of January 8 and is now jamming Starlink. However, Pahlavi stated earlier this week that he has intelligence from within Iran that some members of the country’s leadership are preparing to flee. If Iranian leaders do leave the country, then the protestors will have succeeded in overthrowing their government. Thus, the need for military strikes will be eliminated. However, to date there are no reports of any Iranian leaders fleeing. It is increasingly apparent that a strike by the United States is likely to occur.

The powers-that-be have much more information and understand the situation far better than any of the media or general public. They are carefully analyzing the situation and all options. Still, no one knows in what ways Iran, the Middle East and all of the world will be impacted if the Islamic Republic of Iran falls.

The Iran we’ve all known for the past several decades is almost certainly going to end. No matter how its demise occurs, it will result in a major geopolitical earthquake. Hopefully, the earthquake will not cause a regional escalation of conflict or all-out war. Ideally – although it will take time – it will result in better lives for the Iranian people, a more stable Middle East and improved global relations.